Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Why Democrats are safe until 2012

Michale Barone has an interesting take of the demographic developments and it got me to thinking about the political fortunes of the Democratic party. First, the Democrats receive extremely favorable coverage from the mass media, so their generalized corruption will go unreported even if it is as flagrant as that which drove the Republicans from power. I anticipate a Democratic President, unless Hillary wins the nomination. More than likely it will be Obama, unless he falters and someone who isn't presently in the race comes in to save the day.
But the Democrats are getting set for a trap that they have made for themselves. Much has been made of repealing Bush's tax cuts, which I don't think will happen, but instead they will allow them to expire in 2010. Wealth will flow away from the soon to expire cuts, which will drive down tax revenues, and probably tank the bond market and stock markets as well.
2010 will also see the reapportionment of seats in Congress. Now think about it for a minute. Democratic President, and a Democratic Congress, and the economy tanks. I'm not so sure that Jon Tester will actually get re-elected.

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