Monday, November 05, 2012

What if . . ?

What if contrary to all the energy, Obama is able to steal enough votes in Ohio win,what will happen after the election?  It's clear that the Republicans are going to keep the House and may take the Senate.  If they do, we will have an ideologue in the White House who has said that he is willing to work with anybody.  Sure he hasn't shown it yet, but he's saving it for his second term, I'm sure.  You know, when he will have more freedom, like with Putin.
The one advantage for keeping Obama is that he can immediately start working on the "fiscal cliff" that is looming on the first of January.  I predict that he will tell the Republicans that they have to cave because "I won" just like last time.  Only this time, there is not going to be any pretense of civility between the two sides.  Republicans are going to hold fast to their no tax pledge and with good reason.  Remember, Obama has more of a habit of conceding than seeing something through to the end.  While Republicans will be excoriated for their failure to compromise, they have some things going for them.  First, while Congress is held in low esteem, everyone of them will probably have won with more than 50% of their home district support.  As in, "Screw Congress, but I love my congresscritter." 
Assuming we run over the cliff, the economy is going to shut down.  Anyone with money will be parking it offshore in some form of  stable currency like whatever Somalia uses.  But it's the principle of the thinkg to Obama.  He would rather see the economy tank, 720,000 people losing their jobs and riots in the street than give up on his punitive tax on the so called wealthy.  Remember, it's not about reducing the deficit or increasing revenue to the government.  This is all about class warfare baby.  If it wasn't, why would Obama have agreed to an extension of the Bush tax cuts back in 2010?
There will be a surfeit of new regulations designed to punish the few remaining businesses that failed to have the good sense to contribute significantly to his re-election.  Not that it will matter, except to all the Obamavilles that will spring up and be required to put a catalytic converter over their fire barrels. 
But it's not all bad news.  Because there will be no limits on what Obama will attempt to do by executive fiat, the 2012 elections will probably result in the complete and utter destruction of the Democratic Party.  My forecast is that there may be fewer than 50 Democrats combined in Congress after the election.  Hmmm, isn't Max coming up for re-election then?

But you don't have to worry.  The assumptions built into the polling models are just enough wrong that they end result will be 53-47 Romney with over 300 electoral votes.  If in this highly energized year you don't understand that the Democrat turnout will be matched by Republicans, it will be the independents who will provide the necessary energy to propel the first Mormon President.  When Romney leads among them by 22%, Obama doesn't have a chance. 

And Nate Silver is going to have some explaining to do over at 538.