Thursday, October 28, 2010


At this late of a date, there is really not a lot of challenge in saying that the Republicans are going to take over the House, and will be within striking distance of the Senate. Watch for LIEberman (as his friends on the Left like to call him) and Ben Nelson to suddenly have tremendous influence if the Republicans are within two of 51 votes. Nelson in particular seems to be the best choice for a reverse Arlen Specter.
I will be sad to see Russ Feingold leave. Although I never really agreed with his positions, I have to give him credit for having integrity, and not just following the party line. Not so with Harry Reid, and I hope Barbara Boxer.
Locally, the only question on the ballot will be if McDonald actually breaks the 10% of the vote threshold. I am giving him a 50-50 chance.
I also think that the Tea Party candidates are going to do better than expected. Part of the problem with polling is guestimating who is going to turn out. For the most part, pollsters use historical analysis to predict who is going to show up and vote. Those analysis may not be valid this year. But even if Sharon Angle doesn't defeat Harry Reid or O'Donnel doesn't defeat Coons, the fact is that the Tea Party candidates are just version 1.0. Wait until 2012 and version 2.0 comes along. That version will completely rid the Republicans of the legacy failures like Murkowski, Bennett and Castle for example.
It won't be your Father's Republican Party after this election.

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