Saturday, February 16, 2008

An Interesting Dilemna

NRO has the answer to the question of how many Democratic delegates are left to be selected. Although the dateline of the piece is February 12th, or the date of the Potomac primaries, it does contain this interesting tidbit:
After today’s races are done, there will be 1,071 delegates left to be selected by voters and delegates in 17 states and territories. Obama would have to win more than 90 percent of them in order to win the nomination without the involvement of the remaining 443 superdelegates — who still have not publicly declared for either candidate at this point. Of course, that is impossible. And if Clinton does indeed perform well on March 4, she might erase Obama’s lead and return the contest to a near-tie

While the superdelegates are free to change their vote, assuming that Obama does win all of the 443 uncommitted superdelegates, he would still have to pull around 500 of the pledged delegates to claim the nomination. This is not impossible given the proportional allocation, but I think that if Hillary pulls off Texas and Ohio, that he will be unable to obtain the magic number.
Throwing it to the superdelegates will open the doors to cronyism, bribery and outright threats to secure the nomination. In this regard, I think that the Clinton machine will still excel, although their vulnerability is being exposed by Hillary's flagging performance. Throw in John Edwards and his delegates, and you could have some more fun. I think that if Edwards would be offered some post that he really wants, say Attorney General, he will throw in with whoever offers it first.
As a political junkie, I have to admit that I relish the idea of chaos. The Democrats are certainly creating some interesting scenarios.

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