Saturday, March 15, 2008

Political Follies

At the end of December, I had made some predictions about who the nominees would be for their respective party nominations. I followed it up with an update about two weeks later which presciently analyzed the state of the Democratic race. So far, my predictions that McCain will be the nominee has come true. The Democratic race is far more fun since it isn't over yet. But as Jonah Goldberg notes, the race is coming down to the wire, and it looks like one of those old time movies of two locomotives racing headlong to a collision with each other.
The tenacity of Hillary Clinton to persist, even though she can't win the nomination without the help of superdelegates is definitely having an adverse effect on Obama's coronation. Of course, Obama is not doing such a bad job of self destructing either. So, maybe Hillary has grounds to hang around. After all, should she drop out and Obama gets the full scrutiny that he has avoided for so long, she could become the nominee simply because of Barak's inability to deal with adversity. It would be just as valid as if she had won all of the delegates herself. Except, there are going to be a lot of bruised feelings by the former Obama supporters. And let's face it, Hillary cannot make a plausible case for taking the superdelegates if Barak hangs in there that will satisfy anyone. It also reinforces the idea that blacks will "have to wait their turn." I think that they are through waiting, and will take it out on Hillary by either sitting this one out, or possibly even going to McCain.
Right now, McCain is tied with both Hillary and Barak, and this without all of the press that the two Democratic candidates have been given to his exclusion. If you figure that either Democratic candidate would secure approximately 46-47% of the electorate, which is the same for McCain, the battle will come down to the 6-7% who don't like either of the major party candidates. And since Hillary will have to take a hard left to try and recapture disaffected Obama voters, that will alienate the magic 6-7% who are going to decide the election. McCain will do better with them than she will. In fact, the thing that Republicans hate most about McCain is his ability to connect with the disaffected and unaligned middle, which could give him a 3-4% victory, which nowadays is considered a landslide.
Should Obama somehow prevail and get the nomination, Jonah thinks that Hillary will use the vaunted Clinton machine to actively destroy Barak. Can't you just imagine candidate Obama's anger when they find out that Hillary is feeding Republicans negative stories that will drive down his numbers? Even if they just ask the question - "Why is there no 'there,' there?" they will probably end the best chance for Barak to become President.
The upshot of all this is that if Hillary is the nominee, her negatives will be so high that she cannot win the election against McCain. If Obama is the nominee, he will be fighting a two front war that the Democrats have never had to deal with before.
Sorry folks, but it looks like the old geezer will become President in 2009. The question will be if the Democratic party can withstand the damage that they will do to themselves.

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