Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Prepare Yourself

Six months ago, I had predicted that Romney was going to win the election which was in spite of the polls at the time. Lately, it seems that the polls are even more suggestive of an Obama victory, but I continue to maintain that Romney will win nonetheless. A recent poll shows that Obama and Romney are tied at 47% each. But if you look at the internals, there are some real problems with the poll. First, the poll assumes a weighting of 36% Democratic, 29% Republican and 30% Independent. They are basing these weights off the 2008 election results when
according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.
Hmm, I wonder if the conditions could have changed from the greatest Democratic wave election since 1974? Is it possible, that Republicans who were dispirited in having to defend Bush for eight years would have been more anxious to vote then than they are now? How else do you explain the 3% drop in Republican weighting? Or for that matter, are Democrats really so enthused that they only have lost 3% since 2008? Most of the Democrats I know, are saying that they are going to grit their teeth and vote for Obama in spite of his record. And that's not counting those on the Left who were so morally outraged over wiretaps, Gitmo, tribunals, lawbreaking by the administration, etc. when Republicans were in office and who continue their outrage against the same thing when a Democrat does it. Of course, that's probably only 1% of all Democrats. The rest were just posturing for political advantage.
Setting aside the obvious problems with the polls, there is one sure test for why Obama is going to lose: Democrats fear Romney, but they don't love Obama. Their intensity is nowhere near as great as it was four years ago. Without that intensity, there may be the belief that the polls are accurate and that there is no need to actually go and vote.
 Republicans on the other hand may not love Romney, but he has that one shining asset that makes him their favorite: He's not Obama. Throw in the independents who when faced with the choice of four more years of the new normal or take a chance on changing things, and Obama may not even get the full value of his 47%. When we wake up on November 7th and find out that Romney has just been elected by the biggest electoral victory since 1984, what do you think all the good Democrats are going to be thinking? That's right, there will be a hue and cry throughout the land "We wuz robbed!" And the only way that they could have been robbed was through voter fraud and voter intimidation by Republicans, because all the polls showed that Obama was going to win.
And so, we have the first shot in the salvo to deligitimize President Romney. Just like they tried to deligitimize G. W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 (remember the tampered with voting machines in Ohio?) and the Republicans did with the birther nonsense, the idea is to remove the moral authority to govern. Throw in the newly discovered racism of all the people who lied to the pollsters, and you can be sanctimonious in your outrage that the first black President of the United States was denied his opportunity to bring us all to a healthy and happy place.
Just don't remind them that opposition to bad policy is not racist when it's bad policy.


Auntie Lib said...

From your keyboard to God's ears! I agree - I'm not seeing much enthusiasm from the Obamamaniacs around my office. Last time they were acting like giddy teenagers. This time they're more like funeral directors.

Tom Balek - Rockin On the Right Side said...

His very solid debate performance reminds me that Romney (in spite of my trepidation) actually WAS the best Republican for the job. Imagine Santorum, or Gingrich, or my man Cain at that podium. Or, um, Ron Paul . . . no, I think the primary voters actually got it right.

Steve said...

Wisdom of the crowds?